Thursday, April 3, 2025

The Bofors Scandal and 2G Spectrum Case: Busting the Myth of India’s “Biggest Scams”

 In India, the terms "Bofors scandal" and "2G scam" are synonymous with corruption, political intrigue, and monumental financial loss. For decades, these events have been etched into the public psyche as textbook examples of scams that tarnished the nation’s governance. But here’s the twist: the judiciary, after years of investigation and legal scrutiny, has told a different story—one that challenges the popular narrative. Despite the widespread belief that these were clear-cut cases of corruption, the facts and court rulings reveal a more nuanced reality. Let’s dive into the details and bust the misconceptions surrounding these two infamous episodes.

The Bofors Scandal: A Political Firestorm Without a Smoking Gun
The Bofors scandal erupted in 1987 when Swedish Radio alleged that kickbacks were paid to secure a $1.4 billion deal for 410 field howitzers between the Indian government and the Swedish arms manufacturer AB Bofors. The accusations pointed fingers at high-profile figures, including then-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, suggesting that bribes funneled through middlemen like Italian businessman Ottavio Quattrocchi tainted the deal. The political fallout was seismic—Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress party lost the 1989 elections, and the scandal became a symbol of corruption in Indian politics.
But what did the judiciary say? After nearly two decades of investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Delhi High Court delivered a pivotal ruling on February 4, 2004. Justice J.D. Kapoor stated that “16 long years of investigation by CBI could not unearth a scintilla of evidence” against the accused for accepting bribes or illegal gratification. The court quashed charges against key figures, including the Hinduja brothers, due to a lack of concrete proof. In 2018, the Supreme Court further dismissed a CBI appeal challenging the High Court’s decision, citing insufficient grounds to reopen the case after such a long delay.
The Bofors case unraveled not because of proven corruption but because of political sensationalism and media amplification. Allegations of secret Swiss bank accounts and shadowy middlemen fueled public outrage, yet no money trail was conclusively established. The narrative of a "scam" persisted, but the judiciary found no substance to back it up. Today, Bofors remains a cautionary tale—not of corruption, but of how unproven allegations can shape public perception for generations.
The 2G Spectrum Case: A “Scam” Built on Exaggeration
Fast forward to 2008, and the 2G spectrum case took center stage as India’s supposed "biggest scam." The controversy stemmed from the allocation of 122 telecom licenses by then-Telecom Minister A. Raja at 2001 prices, allegedly causing a staggering loss of ₹1.76 lakh crore ($25 billion) to the exchequer, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The media and opposition parties painted a picture of rampant cronyism, with Raja accused of rigging the first-come-first-served policy to favor select companies in exchange for bribes. The public was incensed, and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government faced a firestorm that contributed to its 2014 electoral defeat.
However, the judicial outcome flipped the script. On December 21, 2017, a special CBI court acquitted all 19 accused, including A. Raja and DMK MP Kanimozhi, after a seven-year trial. Special Judge O.P. Saini’s 1,552-page verdict was scathing: “Some people created a scam by artfully arranging a few selected facts and exaggerating things beyond recognition to astronomical levels.” The court found no evidence of criminality or conspiracy in the spectrum allocation process. It criticized the CBI’s case as relying on “rumor, gossip, and speculation,” noting that the prosecution failed to prove any bribery or financial loss.
The ₹1.76 lakh crore figure, often cited as gospel, was a notional estimate—not a proven loss. The Supreme Court had canceled the licenses in 2012, citing procedural irregularities, but this didn’t equate to evidence of corruption. Subsequent spectrum auctions under the BJP government fetched far less than the CAG’s projection, further undermining the "scam" narrative. In March 2024, the Delhi High Court admitted a CBI appeal against the acquittal, acknowledging contradictions in the trial court’s judgment that warrant deeper scrutiny. Yet, as of now, no court has overturned the 2017 ruling, leaving the "2G scam" as a case of perception outpacing proof.
Why the Misconception Persists
So why do Indians still view Bofors and 2G as undeniable scams? The answer lies in a mix of political opportunism, media sensationalism, and a public appetite for outrage. In both cases, opposition parties leveraged the allegations to devastating effect—Bofors toppled Rajiv Gandhi, and 2G fueled Narendra Modi’s 2014 wave. The media, too, played a role, amplifying unverified claims and eye-popping figures like ₹1.76 lakh crore, which stuck in the collective memory. Over time, these narratives hardened into "facts," even as the judiciary found no evidence to sustain them.
There’s also a deeper cultural factor at play: a pervasive distrust of politicians and institutions. In a country where corruption is a lived reality for many, it’s easy to assume the worst. But assuming guilt isn’t the same as proving it—and that’s where the courts come in.
The Judicial Reality Check
The judiciary’s role in both cases is a reminder that allegations aren’t evidence. For Bofors, the Delhi High Court and Supreme Court found no proof of bribery after exhaustive probes. For 2G, the special court dismantled the prosecution’s case, calling it baseless, while the ongoing appeal process has yet to reverse that finding. These rulings don’t mean irregularities didn’t occur—Bofors had murky middlemen, and 2G’s allocation process was flawed—but they do mean that the label "scam" doesn’t hold up under legal scrutiny.
Time to Rethink the Narrative
The Bofors scandal and 2G spectrum case have shaped India’s political landscape, but they’ve also distorted its understanding of corruption. The misconception that these were proven scams ignores the judicial outcomes and the absence of hard evidence. It’s time to shift the conversation from reflexive outrage to critical reflection. Corruption is real and must be fought, but not every controversy is a scam—and not every accusation is a fact.
As Indians, we owe it to ourselves to question the stories we’ve been told. The next time someone brings up Bofors or 2G, ask them: What did the courts say? The answer might surprise you—and it might just change the way you see India’s so-called "biggest scams."

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

India’s Demographic Future: Dividend or Disaster?

 India stands at a pivotal moment in its demographic journey. With a population of approximately 1.45 billion as of 2024, it is the world’s most populous nation, having surpassed China in 2023. For decades, India’s large and youthful population has been hailed as a potential "demographic dividend"—a window of opportunity where a high proportion of working-age individuals could drive economic growth. Yet, recent trends suggest this advantage may be slipping away, raising the question: Will India’s demography prove to be a dividend or a disaster? To answer this, we must examine India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), its implications for the future, and how it compares to China’s demographic trajectory.

India’s TFR and the Replacement Level
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the "replacement level"—the point at which a population sustains itself without growing or shrinking, assuming stable mortality and no net migration. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019-21), India’s TFR has fallen to 2.0, dipping below the replacement level for the first time. This marks a significant decline from 3.4 in 1992-93 and 2.2 in 2015-16, reflecting the success of decades-long family planning initiatives, rising education levels, and urbanization.
However, this national average masks regional disparities. Southern states like Kerala (TFR 1.8) and Tamil Nadu (TFR 1.4) have long been below replacement level, while northern states like Bihar (TFR 3.0) and Uttar Pradesh (TFR 2.3) remain above it. Urban areas report a TFR of 1.6, compared to 2.1 in rural regions. A 2024 study in The Lancet projects India’s TFR to drop further—to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100—signaling a future of population decline.
What does this mean? A TFR below 2.1 indicates that, over time, each generation will produce fewer children than needed to replace itself. India’s population is still growing due to "demographic momentum"—a large cohort of young people entering reproductive age—but this growth will peak around 2048 at 1.6 billion, then decline to 1.1 billion by 2100, per The Lancet. This shift could either unlock economic potential or strain resources, depending on how India prepares.
The Dividend Dream
A demographic dividend occurs when the working-age population (15-64) outnumbers dependents (children under 15 and elderly over 65), boosting productivity and savings. India entered this phase in 2018, with 62.5% of its population in the working-age bracket, a figure expected to peak at 57% by the mid-2030s. The United Nations estimates this window will last until 2055, offering a 37-year opportunity to capitalize on a youthful workforce.
The potential is immense. By 2030, one in five working-age individuals globally could be Indian, according to government projections. To sustain economic growth, India must create 7.85 million jobs annually until 2030. If successful, this could propel India from a low-middle-income economy to a high-income one, mirroring the success of East Asian "tiger" economies like South Korea and Japan, which leveraged their demographic dividends decades ago.
The Disaster Risk
Yet, the dividend is not guaranteed. A shrinking TFR and an aging population pose significant risks. By 2050, 20% of India’s population—over 300 million people—will be over 60, outnumbering children in some regions. This rapid aging, driven by a TFR below replacement and rising life expectancy (from 41.7 years in 1950 to 70.1 in 2020), echoes challenges faced by developed nations. Unlike France or Sweden, which aged over 80-120 years, India will double its elderly population from 7% to 14% in just 28 years, leaving little time to build robust social security and healthcare systems.
Job creation remains a bottleneck. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (2022-23) shows a labor force participation rate of 53% for the 15-59 age group, meaning nearly half of India’s working-age population is jobless. Youth unemployment is stark, with 82.9% of the unemployed being under 35, per Fortune India. The informal economy dominates, offering low wages and no social security, while female participation lags at 37%, squandering half the potential workforce. Without massive investments in education, skills, and infrastructure, India risks a "jobless growth" scenario, squandering its dividend.
China’s Cautionary Tale
China offers a stark comparison. Its TFR fell from 6.4 in 1950 to 1.09 in 2022, driven by the one-child policy (1979-2015). China’s working-age population peaked in 2010 at 70%, fueling decades of double-digit growth post-1994. But its dividend ended abruptly. By 2022, China’s population began declining, dropping from 1.425 billion to a projected 1.31 billion by 2050. Today, its median age is 37.4 (versus India’s 28), and by 2050, it will hit 50.7, with a shrinking workforce supporting a ballooning elderly population.
China’s rapid aging—faster than almost any nation—stems from a TFR well below replacement and limited immigration. Its GDP per capita ($21,000) is higher than India’s ($2,400), but its demographic crisis threatens economic stability. India, with a later dividend window and a less drastic TFR decline, has more time to act—but not much. China’s failure to adapt early—relying on pronatalist policies that yielded little—warns India against complacency.
Dividend or Disaster? The Deciding Factors
India’s demographic future hinges on three pillars:
  1. Education and Skills: Only 47% of women and 53% of men aged 20-24 have completed higher secondary education (NFHS-5). The Gross Enrolment Ratio in higher education is 28.4%, far below developed nations. Without upskilling, India’s youth bulge will be unemployable.
  2. Job Creation: The government’s target of 7.85 million jobs annually is ambitious but achievable with investment in manufacturing, services, and technology. Migration from high-fertility northern states to low-fertility southern ones, as seen in Delhi, could extend the dividend if managed well.
  3. Aging Preparedness: A TFR of 1.29 by 2050 will shrink the workforce while expanding the elderly cohort. India must emulate Japan’s focus on "active aging"—extending working years and enhancing healthcare—rather than China’s reactive approach.
Conclusion
India’s TFR of 2.0, now below the replacement level of 2.1, signals a turning point. The next three decades offer a chance to harness a demographic dividend, but the window is narrowing. Success requires bold policies—massive job creation, education reform, and gender inclusion—lest India follow China into a demographic disaster of aging and economic stagnation. The data is clear: India’s population will peak and decline, but whether this shift fuels prosperity or peril depends on the choices made today.

Rare, old photographs of Narendra Modi

 

Rare, old photographs of Narendra Modi

Standing outside the White House with his friends during his first visit to the United States, in the nineties
A memory from the New Zealand visit.
A memorable moment captured near the Eiffel Tower in Paris.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his visit to the United States, as a Union Campaigner
Universal Studios Hollywood
Narendra Modi on his London visit during his early days
A curious Narendra Modi observing the Apollo Spacecraft.
An old click during his visit to Malaysia.
Narendra Modi right outside the Sydney Opera House in Australia
An old memory of a trip abroad
Group photo in Malaysia
An old memory of a visit to Malaysia.
Modi visited Australia
Modi on Sydney Harbour Bridge
Narendra Modi was born in 1950, three years after India’s independence, to mother Hiraben and father Damodardas, a teaseller, in the western state of Gujarat. His entry into politics began at just eight years old when when he enrolled in classes at the local branch of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing organization that advocates for the supremacy of Hinduism in India
As a teen, Modi traveled across India with the RSS and joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 1987, a then fringe political party which started gaining traction fueled by the rise of Hindu nationalism in India
Narendra Modi, then BJP secretary is welcomed at Ahmedabad Railway Station by the party’s followers on January 31, 1992.
Vacation
true rare look
During the Babri Demolition days
Picture from his youth, while he was working for RSS
Narendra modi with his wife
With senior BJP leaders
Narendra Modi with Imran Khan
In a Drama skit
So brave






Snorkeling in Lakshadweep

Underwater Yoga
Pilot Modi



In Lakshadweep


Modi holding a rifle

Modi visiting the crashed Boeing 787 plane



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