Survivor Bias in India: Why Celebrating Winners Alone Can Mislead You

 In India, success stories are everywhere — from rags-to-riches entrepreneurs like Dhirubhai Ambani and Ritesh Agarwal, to IIT toppers who crack UPSC and land top government jobs, to cricketers like Virat Kohli making the nation proud. We love these stories because they inspire us, fuel ambition, and show us what’s possible.

But here’s the catch — when we only focus on winners and success stories, we fall prey to a cognitive trap called survivor bias. This bias can distort how we view success, effort, and the risks involved. Let’s unpack what survivor bias means and why, in the Indian context, being aware of it is crucial.

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What Is Survivor Bias?

Survivor bias happens when we look only at the “survivors” — those who succeeded — and ignore those who tried the same path but didn’t make it. The failures, struggles, and silent exits remain invisible. This skews our understanding because the visible winners are only a small, unrepresentative sample of everyone who started.

For example:

• We read about Indian startup founders who became billionaires, but thousands of startups never take off or shut down.

• We celebrate the IIT graduate who built a successful tech company, but don’t often hear about those IIT grads struggling to find jobs.

• We admire a cricketer who played for India, but overlook the countless talented players who never got a chance.

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Why Is This a Problem?

1. False Perception of Success Probability

If you only see winners, you might overestimate how likely success is, leading to unrealistic expectations. For instance, many young Indians aspire to start their own business inspired by Flipkart’s success, without realizing that about 90% of startups fail.

2. Ignoring the Role of Luck and Timing

Success isn’t just hard work or talent; often, luck and timing play huge roles. Survivor bias hides this, making success look purely due to skill or effort.

3. Underestimating Risks and Challenges

By focusing on success stories, people might underestimate the risks or challenges. This can lead to poor decisions — like dropping out of college thinking it’s a shortcut, inspired by a handful of famous dropout billionaires.

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Is Highlighting Winners Bad?

Absolutely not! Celebrating achievers motivates society, spreads hope, and shows what’s possible. India thrives on its success stories to inspire millions.

The key is balance: Along with winners, we must recognize the silent majority who struggled or failed. This balanced view helps us understand the true path to success — which often involves failures, retries, and learning.

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How Can We Avoid Survivor Bias?

1. Listen to Failure Stories

Entrepreneurs should share their failures, not just wins. Educational institutions can highlight students’ struggles, not just toppers.

2. Be Realistic About Success Rates

Understand that for every successful startup or athlete, many tried and failed. Don’t underestimate the odds.

3. Acknowledge Luck and External Factors

Recognize that timing, connections, and external circumstances matter too.

4. Learn from the Whole Spectrum

Study success and failure cases to get a realistic roadmap.

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Examples from India

• Startup Scene: While Ola and Paytm are celebrated, thousands of startups quietly shut down each year. Recognizing this prepares aspiring founders better.

• Competitive Exams: UPSC toppers are applauded, but most aspirants clear preliminary exams only after multiple attempts or never at all. Coaching institutes could emphasize this reality more.

• Sports: Cricket legends shine on TV, but countless players play at club and district level without ever getting a big break.

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Conclusion

Survivor bias is a natural cognitive shortcut but being aware of it is vital — especially in a country like India where success stories inspire millions. Celebrate winners, yes, but also recognize the invisible struggles and failures that paint the full picture.

This balanced perspective empowers smarter decisions, more realistic expectations, and a healthier appreciation of what success really entails.

Why Success Should Be About the Process, Not the Outcome

 Why Success Should Be About the Process, Not the Outcome

In a country like India, where ambition runs deep and dreams are as vast as the Himalayas, success is often painted as a shiny trophy: a high-paying job, a luxurious car, or a viral moment of fame. We’re conditioned to chase outcomes—board exam percentiles, IIT admissions, or startup valuations. But what if we’ve been looking at success the wrong way? What if the real measure of triumph lies not in the destination, but in the journey—the process itself?

Let’s rethink success. Instead of obsessing over results, which are often influenced by factors beyond our control, we should evaluate ourselves based on the effort, learning, and growth we put into the process. Here’s why this shift in perspective matters, especially in the Indian context.

The Outcome Trap: A Common Indian Story

Growing up in India, many of us have heard the phrase, “Bas yeh exam clear kar lo, zindagi set ho jayegi” (Just clear this exam, and your life will be set). The pressure to achieve specific outcomes—scoring 90% in Class 10, cracking JEE, or landing a job at a tech giant like Infosys—dominates our definition of success. But outcomes are slippery. They depend on luck, timing, competition, and sometimes even systemic biases.

Take the example of a student preparing for the UPSC exams, one of the toughest tests in India. Lakhs of aspirants pour years into preparation, but only a few hundred make it to the final list. Does that mean the rest “failed”? If we judge success by the outcome—becoming an IAS officer—then yes. But if we judge it by the process—the discipline of studying 12 hours a day, the resilience to keep going after setbacks, the knowledge gained about governance and society—then every aspirant who gave their all is a success story, regardless of the rank.

Process Builds Character, Outcomes Don’t

Consider the story of Dhirubhai Ambani, the founder of Reliance Industries. He didn’t start with a silver spoon or a guaranteed outcome. He began as a clerk in Yemen, hustling and learning the ropes of trade. His success wasn’t just the empire he built, but the process he embraced: taking risks, adapting to challenges, and staying persistent. The outcome—Reliance becoming a corporate giant—was a byproduct of his focus on the journey.

In contrast, when we fixate on outcomes, we risk losing sight of what truly shapes us. Think about the Indian cricket team during the 2011 World Cup. The nation celebrated the victory, but what made that win iconic wasn’t just the trophy—it was the process. MS Dhoni’s calm leadership, Tendulkar’s dedication over decades, and the team’s grit in high-pressure matches. If they’d lost the final, would we call their effort worthless? No. The process they mastered was the real victory.

External Factors Skew Outcomes

In India, outcomes are often tangled with circumstances we can’t control. A farmer in Maharashtra might follow the best agricultural practices, but a drought could wipe out his crop. A small business owner in Delhi might pour their heart into a venture, only to be outdone by a sudden policy change like demonetization. If we judge these individuals by their harvests or profits, we’re ignoring the diligence and innovation they brought to the table.

The process, however, is within our grasp. It’s the farmer experimenting with drip irrigation or the entrepreneur pivoting to digital sales. These actions reflect success in adaptability and effort—qualities that matter more than a single season’s yield or a quarterly balance sheet.

Redefining Success in Everyday India

This mindset shift isn’t just for grand pursuits; it applies to daily life too. Imagine a young woman in Bengaluru learning to code. She might not land a job at Google right away, but if she’s mastering Python, building projects, and seeking feedback, she’s succeeding. Or think of a street vendor in Mumbai perfecting his vada pav recipe and customer service. His stall might not become a chain like Goli Vada Pav, but his consistent hustle is success in motion.

In a society obsessed with “log kya kahenge” (what will people say), focusing on the process frees us from external validation. It’s about running your own race, not someone else’s.

How to Embrace a Process-Driven Mindset

1. Set Intentions, Not Just Goals: Instead of “I’ll get into IIM,” aim for “I’ll study management concepts daily and improve my problem-solving skills.”
2. Celebrate Small Wins: Clearing a mock test or finishing a book is progress worth acknowledging.
3. Learn from Setbacks: A rejection from a dream job isn’t failure—it’s feedback to refine your approach.
4. Value Effort Over Rankings: In a country of 1.4 billion, not everyone can be number one, but everyone can give their best.

The Bigger Picture

India’s history is full of process-driven heroes. Take Mahatma Gandhi’s Salt March: the outcome wasn’t immediate independence, but the process—mobilizing millions, defying colonial rule—ignited a movement. Or consider APJ Abdul Kalam, who rose from humble beginnings to become the “Missile Man.” His success wasn’t just the presidency; it was the decades of scientific rigor and teaching that got him there.

When we evaluate success by the process, we empower ourselves to grow, adapt, and find meaning, no matter the result. In a fast-moving, competitive India, this perspective is not just refreshing—it’s revolutionary. So, the next time you’re chasing a dream, ask yourself: “Am I showing up? Am I learning? Am I giving my all?” If the answer is yes, you’re already succeeding—trophy or not.