Why Modi’s “standing with farmers” rhetoric misses the mark: The real sectors taking the hit

Modi’s emphasis on protecting farmers from US tariffs is politically savvy but economically misleading — agriculture represents only ~6% of India’s $79 billion exports to the US, while far larger non-agricultural sectors are bearing the brunt of Trump’s tariffs.

The sectors actually getting hammered (far bigger than agriculture):

Electronics/IT Hardware: $12.3 billion (largest single category)

• Smartphones, semiconductors, IT equipment
• Employs millions in urban manufacturing hubs
• Currently exempted but vulnerable to policy shifts

Gems & Jewelry: $9.15 billion

• Cut diamonds, precious stones, gold jewelry
• Faces 52% total tariff, among the highest
• 30% of sector’s global sales go to US
• Heavily concentrated in Gujarat, Mumbai

Pharmaceuticals: $8.7 billion

• Generic drugs, APIs, formulations
• Currently exempted due to US healthcare dependence
• Employs educated middle-class workforce

Machinery/Engineering: $6.48 billion

• Auto components, industrial equipment
• 65%+ US market dependency in some sub-sectors
• Major employer in manufacturing states

Textiles/Apparel: $2.9 billion

• Faces 59–64% total tariffs (highest of all sectors)
• Labor-intensive but much smaller than other hit sectors
• Already declining before tariffs

Why the farmer rhetoric is misleading:

Agricultural exports to US: ~$4–5 billion (including marine products)

• Rice, spices, marine products make up bulk
• Many agricultural items already duty-free or low-tariff
• Sector employs many but contributes relatively small export value

The real impact hierarchy:

1. Urban manufacturing workers (electronics, pharma, engineering) — highest skilled, highest paid
2. Diamond/jewelry artisans (Gujarat/Mumbai) — traditional but high-value
3. Textile workers (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka) — labor-intensive but smaller scale
4. Farmers/fishermen — large numbers but smaller dollar impact

Political calculation behind farmer focus:

• Vote bank arithmetic: Farmers are 40%+ of workforce vs. industrial workers ~25%
• Emotional resonance: “Annadata” (food provider) narrative plays better than “export manufacturer”
• Deflection strategy: Easier to blame external tariffs than address domestic industrial competitiveness
• State politics: Key agricultural states (UP, Punjab, Haryana) more electorally critical than industrial centers

What Modi isn’t saying:

The real economic damage is to India’s high-value manufacturing and services sectors that employ educated urban workers, generate higher per-capita income, and drive technology transfer — precisely the sectors needed for India’s “developed nation” aspirations.

Bottom line: Modi’s farmer-centric messaging obscures that urban industrial workers in electronics, pharma, gems, and engineering — not farmers — are taking the biggest economic hit from US tariffs. It’s classic political theater: appeal to the numerically larger but economically smaller constituency while the higher-value sectors suffer quietly.