Showing posts with label tariff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tariff. Show all posts

Friday, August 15, 2025

India’s 35 Million–Strong Diaspora: Pride Without Power?

 

India’s 35 Million–Strong Diaspora: Pride Without Power?

Every January, we celebrate Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas with pomp and pride. Politicians beam about the 35 million Indians abroad, often calling them “India’s ambassadors to the world.” We highlight the parade of Indian-origin CEOs — Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Arvind Krishna — as proof that Indian talent dominates global boardrooms. We’ve even sweetened the deal with OCI cards, allowing them to keep a foot in the Indian door.

And yet, when it comes to protecting India’s core economic interests, this vast network has been silent — sometimes uncomfortably so.

The Test Case: US Tariffs

When the United States imposed tariffs affecting Indian goods — steel, aluminium, and later other sectors — New Delhi expected that the strong Indian-American presence, especially in policy circles and corporate corridors, might help soften the blow. After all, this is the same diaspora that India celebrates at every opportunity.

But there was no organized lobbying, no public campaign, no high-profile voices condemning the move. The Indian-American community, despite its political clout and economic influence, remained on the sidelines.

Why the Silence?

  1. National Loyalty vs. Cultural Roots
    Most diaspora members, especially those in positions of power, are now citizens of their adopted countries. When push comes to shove, their legal and political obligations lie there, not here.
  2. Corporate Priorities Over National Affection
    A CEO’s primary responsibility is to shareholders, not to the land of their birth. Supporting India against their own government’s trade policy is simply not in their job description.
  3. Fear of Political Backlash
    Openly lobbying against a domestic policy of their host country can invite suspicion, accusations of dual loyalty, and professional risk.

The Harsh Reality

We love to imagine that the Indian diaspora is a geopolitical asset, ready to rally for India in times of need. The truth is more sobering: diaspora influence is circumstantial. It can shine in cultural promotion, philanthropy, and bilateral business ties — but when a direct clash of interests arises, their loyalties will align with their passports.

This isn’t betrayal. It’s simply the reality of migration and assimilation.

Rethinking Our Approach

India must recognize that diaspora goodwill ≠ diaspora activism. We can still take pride in their achievements, but we must stop assuming they are a dependable lobbying force for India’s political battles. Instead:

  • Build our own institutional lobbying capacity abroad.
  • Strengthen government-to-government channels rather than relying on soft power alone.
  • Appreciate diaspora contributions where they are effective, but not confuse sentiment with strategy.

Conclusion

Our 35 million–strong diaspora is a source of pride, culture, and connection — but not a shield in economic warfare. They have built lives elsewhere, and when forced to choose, they will side with the nations that now claim their allegiance.

India can celebrate Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas, hand out OCI cards, and beam at the success of Indian-origin leaders. But let’s also accept the reality: in the moments of geopolitical friction, we stand alone.

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Why Modi’s “standing with farmers” rhetoric misses the mark: The real sectors taking the hit

 

Why Modi’s “standing with farmers” rhetoric misses the mark: The real sectors taking the hit

Modi’s emphasis on protecting farmers from US tariffs is politically savvy but economically misleading — agriculture represents only ~6% of India’s $79 billion exports to the US, while far larger non-agricultural sectors are bearing the brunt of Trump’s tariffs.

The sectors actually getting hammered (far bigger than agriculture):

Electronics/IT Hardware: $12.3 billion (largest single category)

  • Smartphones, semiconductors, IT equipment
  • Employs millions in urban manufacturing hubs
  • Currently exempted but vulnerable to policy shifts

Gems & Jewelry: $9.15 billion

  • Cut diamonds, precious stones, gold jewelry
  • Faces 52% total tariff, among the highest
  • 30% of sector’s global sales go to US
  • Heavily concentrated in Gujarat, Mumbai

Pharmaceuticals: $8.7 billion

  • Generic drugs, APIs, formulations
  • Currently exempted due to US healthcare dependence
  • Employs educated middle-class workforce

Machinery/Engineering: $6.48 billion

  • Auto components, industrial equipment
  • 65%+ US market dependency in some sub-sectors
  • Major employer in manufacturing states

Textiles/Apparel: $2.9 billion

  • Faces 59–64% total tariffs (highest of all sectors)
  • Labor-intensive but much smaller than other hit sectors
  • Already declining before tariffs

Why the farmer rhetoric is misleading:

Agricultural exports to US: ~$4–5 billion (including marine products)

  • Rice, spices, marine products make up bulk
  • Many agricultural items already duty-free or low-tariff
  • Sector employs many but contributes relatively small export value

The real impact hierarchy:

  1. Urban manufacturing workers (electronics, pharma, engineering) — highest skilled, highest paid
  2. Diamond/jewelry artisans (Gujarat/Mumbai) — traditional but high-value
  3. Textile workers (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka) — labor-intensive but smaller scale
  4. Farmers/fishermen — large numbers but smaller dollar impact

Political calculation behind farmer focus:

  • Vote bank arithmetic: Farmers are 40%+ of workforce vs. industrial workers ~25%
  • Emotional resonance: “Annadata” (food provider) narrative plays better than “export manufacturer”
  • Deflection strategy: Easier to blame external tariffs than address domestic industrial competitiveness
  • State politics: Key agricultural states (UP, Punjab, Haryana) more electorally critical than industrial centers

What Modi isn’t saying:

The real economic damage is to India’s high-value manufacturing and services sectors that employ educated urban workers, generate higher per-capita income, and drive technology transfer — precisely the sectors needed for India’s “developed nation” aspirations.

Bottom line: Modi’s farmer-centric messaging obscures that urban industrial workers in electronics, pharma, gems, and engineering — not farmers — are taking the biggest economic hit from US tariffs. It’s classic political theater: appeal to the numerically larger but economically smaller constituency while the higher-value sectors suffer quietly.

India’s 35 Million–Strong Diaspora: Pride Without Power?

  India’s 35 Million–Strong Diaspora: Pride Without Power? Every January, we celebrate  Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas  with pomp and pride. Politi...