India’s total fertility rate (TFR) dipping below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman has sparked debates, with some voices urging Indians to have more children to counter perceived demographic decline. However, this concern is overstated and often ignores the broader context of India’s socioeconomic realities and global examples like Japan. A falling TFR is not a harbinger of doom but often a sign of progress, reflecting improvements in education, healthcare, and economic opportunities. Here’s why India’s declining fertility rate should be viewed with nuance rather than panic.
Japan’s Example: Low TFR, Thriving Economy
Consider Japan, a nation often cited in discussions about low fertility. In 1960, Japan’s TFR was around 2.00, and it has since declined to 1.26 in 2023. Does this mean the Japanese have gone extinct in 2025? Far from it. Japan remains a global economic powerhouse, with a highly advanced economy, cutting-edge technology, and a robust social system. While Japan faces challenges like an aging population and labor shortages, its low TFR has not erased its achievements or societal stability. Instead, Japan has adapted through automation, immigration policies, and productivity gains. India, with its unique context, can learn from such examples rather than fear a similar trajectory.
India’s Context: Population and Resource Constraints
India is the world’s most populous country, with over 1.4 billion people. The notion that a TFR below 2.1 threatens the nation’s future overlooks the strain already placed on its resources. For instance, India’s judiciary is burdened with over 50 million pending cases, reflecting systemic inefficiencies exacerbated by population pressure. Additionally, around 800 million people rely on subsidized food rations for survival, underscoring the challenges of poverty and food security. More children in this context would likely intensify these issues, not resolve them.
The argument that India needs more people to sustain economic growth or demographic dividends ignores the quality-over-quantity principle. A smaller, healthier, better-educated population is far more productive than a larger one struggling with inadequate infrastructure, education, and healthcare. India’s socioeconomic problems—unemployment, urban overcrowding, environmental degradation—cannot be solved by increasing birth rates. Instead, they require investments in education, skill development, and equitable resource distribution.
Falling Fertility Reflects Progress
A declining TFR often signals positive societal changes. In India, states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra have had below-replacement TFRs for decades, yet they consistently rank among the country’s most developed regions. These states boast higher female literacy, greater workforce participation, lower child mortality, and better access to family planning. These are not signs of decline but of empowerment and progress.
- Higher Female Education: Educated women tend to have fewer children, prioritizing quality of life for themselves and their families. In Kerala, female literacy is near 100%, correlating with a TFR of around 1.6.
- More Workforce Participation: As women enter the workforce, they delay marriage and childbirth, contributing to economic growth. Tamil Nadu’s industrial and service sectors thrive partly due to higher female employment.
- Lower Child Mortality: Improved healthcare means families no longer need to have multiple children to ensure survival. India’s infant mortality rate has dropped significantly, from 66 per 1,000 live births in 2000 to under 30 in 2023.
- Family Planning Access: Access to contraception and reproductive health services empowers couples to make informed choices, aligning family size with economic realities.
These factors reflect a society transitioning toward stability and prosperity, not one on the brink of collapse.
The Real Challenges Lie Elsewhere
Rather than fixating on TFR, India should address more pressing issues. The country’s demographic dividend—its large working-age population—will only yield benefits if accompanied by quality education, job creation, and healthcare access. An overemphasis on increasing birth rates distracts from these priorities. Moreover, an aging population, often cited as a concern, is a future challenge that can be managed through policies like Japan’s, including pension reforms, eldercare systems, and selective immigration.
A Call for Reflection
Those advocating for higher birth rates in India should pause and reflect on what they’re truly proposing. In a nation grappling with overpopulation, resource scarcity, and systemic inefficiencies, encouraging more births risks exacerbating existing problems. The success of states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu shows that lower fertility can coexist with prosperity. Japan’s experience demonstrates that a low TFR does not spell extinction but adaptation.
India’s focus should be on building a sustainable future for its existing population—through education, employment, and equitable growth—rather than worrying about a fertility rate that reflects progress. A smaller, more empowered population is not a threat but an opportunity to create a stronger, more resilient India.
